|SC4||Friday 3 June 09:00 - 17:00|
|Title:||Uncertainty Quantification and Management|
|Instructor:||Dr Dario Grana (University of Wyoming)|
|Course Room:||Schubert 6, Congress Center|
|Disciplines:||Geophysics, Petroleum Engineering, Cross Discipline|
|CPD Points||5 CPD Points awarded for the EurGeol Title|
Reservoir modeling provides a set of techniques to create three-dimensional numerical earth models in terms of elastic, petrophysical and dynamic properties of the reservoir rocks. Mathematical/physical models of the reservoir are generally uncertain due to the lack of information, noise in data measurements, approximations and assumptions. The course focuses on the quantification of the model uncertainty and its impact on reservoir predictions and it is divided into two main parts:
1) uncertainty in spatial and time domain, structure, complexity and dimensionality, and
2) uncertainty management and decision making. Uncertainty propagation from the measure data, through the physical models, to the model predictions will be studied with focus on seismic data inversion, static reservoir characterization, structural modeling, dynamic fluid simulation, time-lapse monitoring and history matching.
The impact of uncertainty on reservoir modeling predictions will be investigated through decision-making theory, to derive strategies to make optimal decisions under different sources of uncertainties. Real case studies will be presented for each topic to illustrate the proposed workflows.
Upon completion of the course, participants will be able to :
- generate multiple reservoir models;
- evaluate the uncertainty of model predictions;
- and develop strategic approaches to make decisions based on uncertainty evaluation results.
The course is designed for employees of oil companies in geophysics and reservoir modeling.
Participants should have knowledge of basic reservoir modeling concepts and of common geophysical data.
About the instructor
Dario Grana is assistant professor of rock physics and reservoir characterization at University of Wyoming, in the Department of Geology and Geophysics. He graduated in Mathematics at University of Pavia (Italy) in 2005 and in Applied Mathematics at University of Milano Bicocca (Italy) in 2006. He has worked four years on reservoir characterization at Eni Exploration and Production in Milan. He then completed his PhD in Geophysics at Stanford University during the summer 2013. His main research interests are rock physics, seismic reservoir characterization, geostatistics and inverse problems for reservoir modeling.